Group A
Income, margin and lifestyle anomalies
Gross or net margin materially below the sector norm, with no clear reason on file3 pts
Recurring losses while the business keeps trading and the owner maintains their lifestyle3 pts
Turnover sitting just under the £90,000 VAT registration threshold year after year3 pts
Drawings or personal spending that look inconsistent with the income declared3 pts
Large or unexplained year on year swings in turnover or profit2 pts
Group B
Director and owner-related
Overdrawn director's loan account not cleared within nine months of the year end (s455 charge)3 pts
Director's loan exceeding £10,000 at any point in the year (benefit in kind, reportable on the P11D)2 pts
Personal expenditure run through the company: private travel, subsistence or motor costs3 pts
Low salary with high dividends where distributable reserves are thin2 pts
Family members on the payroll without a commercial role or commercial rate2 pts
Group C
Cash and sector risk
Cash-intensive trade: hospitality, takeaways, taxis, hair and beauty, construction2 pts
Suppressed-takings indicators: low card-to-cash ratio against the sector, frequent till shortfalls3 pts
Sector currently subject to an HMRC campaign or One to Many activity2 pts
Group D
Filing and disclosure behaviour
Inconsistencies between RTI submissions, VAT returns and the annual accounts3 pts
Late filing of returns or accounts, or a repeated pattern of amendments2 pts
Provisional or estimated figures used and never finalised2 pts
Round-sum figures standing in for actual records1 pt
Group E
Third-party data matches (HMRC Connect)
Property income undeclared while holdings are visible through Land Registry3 pts
Offshore accounts or income reportable under the Common Reporting Standard3 pts
Company car or benefits that do not reconcile to DVLA records or the P11D2 pts
Bank interest, dividends or online-platform income (resale, lettings) above the amount declared2 pts
Crypto or digital-asset disposals not declared, where exchange data is reportable to HMRC2 pts
Group F
Payroll, benefits and labour
P11D benefits in kind omitted or understated2 pts
CIS deductions or subcontractor verifications missing or inconsistent2 pts
National Minimum Wage exposure: unpaid working time, deductions, or sleep-in arrangements2 pts
Group G
VAT-specific
Repeated VAT repayment (reclaim) returns2 pts
A large one-off input VAT reclaim without supporting evidence to hand2 pts
Partial exemption or option-to-tax errors2 pts
Flat-rate or margin-scheme misapplication2 pts
Group H
Reliefs and claims
R&D tax relief claim that is first-time, a sharp jump year on year, or filed through a contingent-fee adviser3 pts
Capital allowances or other relief claims that look aggressive relative to the trade2 pts
Risk profile by area
A
Income, margin and lifestyle anomalies0/14
B
Director and owner-related0/12
C
Cash and sector risk0/7
D
Filing and disclosure behaviour0/8
E
Third-party data matches (HMRC Connect)0/12
F
Payroll, benefits and labour0/6
G
VAT-specific0/8
H
Reliefs and claims0/5
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Indicative diagnostic, not professional tax advice. The weighting reflects relative enquiry risk, not an HMRC measure. No single trigger means an enquiry is coming; a cluster of them is the signal worth acting on.
Live risk score
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LOW0 flagged
Routine monitoring
No concentration of risk. Note the triggers present so they are on the file, and re-run at the next year end.